Home Mortgage Rate Forecast - Find The Best Mortgage Calculator
Posted on July 13, 2008
Filed Under Mortgage Smarts |
Even the best mortgage rates predictions can be like making weather predictions - it is impossible to be precisely accurate with the mortgage rate forecast, and the further in advance you try to predict mortgage interest rates, the greater the margin of error in the prediction. Your best course of action is to wait until the time you want to take out a mortgage, and use a mortgage calculator to determine how much you can afford, based on the interest rate at the time.
Factors Which Make Mortgage Rates Predictions Rise: Inflation
So called “real interest rates” are calculated assuming that inflation is zero. To get from the “real interest rate” to the “nominal interest rate”, which is what your bank will charge you for your mortgage, you add on the annualised percentage rate of inflation, so mortgage rates predictions will increase as inflation increases.
If nothing changes whatsoever in the housing market, but something changes elsewhere to create inflation (like, for example, oil prices increase, raising the prices of gas at the pump, heating oil, and anything transported by road), then there will be upward pressure on interest rates, and mortgage rates predictions would have to take that upward pressure into account.
Factors Which Make Mortgage Rates Predictions Rise: Reduced Availability Of Credit
Financial markets operate on supply and demand. Mortgage lenders generally borrow the money they lend for mortgages, or at least 90% of it. Mortgage rates predictions must take into account whether the supply of money is increasing or decreasing.
Factors Which Make Mortgage Rates Predictions Rise: Increased Risk
Apart from the market pricing factors, there is another factor which comes into play in any investment decision - risk. Mortgage rates in general will depend on the overall risk involved in the housing market.
In terms of mortgage rates predictions, the key factor is the likelihood of default by home owners, and the bank’s chance of getting their money back if a default occurs. The underlying driver of this likelihood is the LVR, or loan to value ratio. This is the average mortgage balance divided by the average house value. Mortgage rates predictions will be influenced my movements in house valuations.
If house values plummet, as they have in some parts of the US, then the default risk for the banks suddenly increases, which means that they will be wanting to charge higher mortgage interest rates; predictions will take this upward pressure into account.
Factors Which Make Mortgage Rates Predictions Fall: Government Intervention
The US Government is an 800-pound gorilla in the financial markets. By issuing Treasury bonds at different interest rates, the government can influence the overall market for money, and thus affect the “real” interest rate. Mortgage rates predictions will consider Federal actions in the markets.
Mortgage rates predictions are more complicated than weather predictions, because political factors influence mortgage rates predictions. This doesn’t make accurate mortgage rates predictions impossible, of course, but it requires more than just a mathematical model to make accurate mortgage rates predictions - it takes a good political “nose” as well! When the time comes, you can find a good mortgage calculator at the Emergency Refinancing web site.
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